TERM PAPER BRE-139 INSTRUCTIONS
For this term paper, use the attached template and use. the attached assignments and you will be writing a research report regarding your real estate market forecast of the local area. Each of the sections will be written in a previous class assignment, and you will bring all the sections together in APA format for this term paper. The required upload format is Microsoft Word (.doc or .docx). PDF is accepted as well.
Topic:
Local real estate economic market forecast.
Length:
14 paragraphs (minimum), plus charts and graphs. Each paragraph must be about 5 sentences. In addition, there is a title page and references page. No appendix page is required.
Citations:
The page citations will need to be in APA format. Here’s an example: (Huber, 2019, p. 37). For multiple pages, it would be: (Huber, 2019, pp. 37-38). Other citations may also be included, but all citations must be referenced. Each paragraph in the body of the report should have a citation as shown. A good “rule of thumb” is that some citations should be direct quotes, and the others should be paraphrased. View APA format: https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/apa_style/apa_formatting_and_style_guide/general_format.htmlLinks to an external site.
References:
All citations must be referenced on the last page. View APA format: https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/apa_style/apa_formatting_and_style_guide/reference_list_basic_rules.htmlLinks to an external site.
Appendices:
None required.
Format:
APA format is required. Scroll down to the end of the instructions and download the CHECKLIST to help guide you.
APA resource from Purdue OWL: https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/apa_style/apa_style_introduction.htmlLinks to an external site.
Headings:
Please use headings and sub-headings as appropriate. APA format headings: https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/apa_style/apa_formatting_and_style_guide/apa_headings_and_seriation.htmlLinks to an external site.
Grammar and Spelling are critical.
Use spell-check, Grammarly, read your paper out loud, take it to the writing center for review, and have a friend proof it for you. Eliminate all errors. Yes, its THAT important!
Academic Integrity:
You must write and type your own report in your own words. Any plagiarism or cheating will cost you a 0 on this important paper, and may also result in an F or this course or suspension from the college.
Recycling:
For this paper, recycling of your own work is acceptable. You may re-use your own written content from your previous class activities. No citations are necessary.
Grading Rubric:
Paper is worth 100 points. Grading will follow the Final Paper Grading Rubric below, and will include:
Each section as described above
Concepts: demonstrate understanding of course topics
Critical Thinking: thorough and complete topic coverage
Mechanics: grammar, spelling, punctuation
Formatting: style, headings, readability
Focus on the Distinguished column to earn an A grade. You have made it this far
so I know that you are 100% capable of an A grade and I expect to see that reflected in your work.
Template:
A sample template is ATTACHED and required. Scroll down to the end of the instructions to download the template.
Due Date:
Completed paper, including student name and date, must be submitted here in Canvas before start time of our last class period.
SECTIONS:
Title Page
Introduction (1 paragraph) – no citations
Economic Principles and Theories (2 paragraphs from Chapters 1 and 2) – APA formatted citations in each paragraph; each paragraph needs 5 sentences.
Financing & Money Markets (2 paragraphs from Chapter 3) – APA formatted citations in each paragraph; each paragraph needs 5 sentences.
Local Area Demographics & Data (2 paragraphs from Chapter 2, Pages 54-55 and Chapter 4/5, plus research list) – APA formatted citations in each paragraph; each paragraph needs 5 sentences.
Real Estate Market Trends (2 paragraphs from Chapters 9, 10, 11, and/or 12) – APA formatted citations in each paragraph; each paragraph needs 5 sentences.
Charts and Graphs (insert one chart and one graph be sure to explain the illustrations and cite the sources under each chart/graph)
Market Forecast (2 paragraphs from Chapters 13 and 14) – APA formatted citations in each paragraph; each paragraph needs 5 sentences.
Strategies & Solutions (2 paragraphs from Chapters 1, 5, 6, and/or 15) – APA formatted citations in each paragraph; each paragraph needs 5 sentences.
Conclusion (1 paragraph) – no citations
References (bibliography page)
NOTE:
Students, get your paper completed EARLY and submit in Canvas as the assignment DRAFT of Final Paper DUE. Please submit a draft of your final paper ONE week prior to the last day of class for instructor review. The draft should include as much of the final paper as you have completed by then. You will submit as a Microsoft® Word® document ATTACHMENT in Canvas. I will review and make suggestions to help you earn full credit on your final paper.
What does that mean for you? It means you must plan ahead and have your paper ready early. By preparing in advance, you also have the opportunity to gain valuable feedback. When you follow the instructor suggestions, you will probably earn a higher grade on your paper. I strongly recommend you take advantage of this opportunity, as the instructor guidance is designed to help you earn a higher grade.
Alternatively, you can submit a draft of your paper in class (at least 2 weeks prior to the deadline, so I can return it to you the next week). Or, you can discuss it with me during office hours. I suggest you make an appointment for office hours, as there may be other students wishing to meet with me during office hours towards the end of the class.
Conclusion
Although this may initially seem like a lot to write in a report, it is NOT difficult at all. If you look through your textbook and notes, you will see that everything you need is already at your fingertips. As always, I am here for you. Please REACH OUT if you need help with anything! All I ask is that you reach out EARLY and do not wait until the last minute, okay?
REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
Real Estate Market Forecast of
Economic Research Conducted by:
BRE-139 Real Estate Economics
Victor Valley College
Instructor: Professor Regina Pierce Brown
1
REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
2
Introduction
Economic Principles and Theories
< 2 paragraphs. Each paragraph needs 5 sentences and must include at least one citation
(page number from the textbook). In the first paragraph, answer the following questions in
complete sentences based on Chapter 1 of the textbook. Do NOT include these
questions/prompts in your responses: What is the importance of studying real estate economics?
Define the laws of supply and demand (pages 6 - 9), and explain how they influence the real
estate market. What is the difference between inflation, deflation, and stagflation? Select one of
the economic laws, principles, or economies from pages 17 - 20 and explain how it applies to
real estate. Identify the four real estate cycles (pages 20 - 25) to begin the process of forecasting
the future market.>
Financing & Money Markets
< 2 paragraphs. Each paragraph needs 5 sentences long and include at least one citation
(page number from the textbook). In the first paragraph, answer the following questions in
complete sentences based on Chapter 3 of the textbook. Do NOT include these
questions/prompts in your responses: Identify and explain one of the money principles from
pages 85 - 88. Describe the distinguishing features of the Federal Reserve ("The Fed") and how
it operates (Pages 88-93). Compare and contrast the Fed's monetary policy with its fiscal policy
-- how are they both similar, and yet different from each other (pages 94-96)? Discuss the
balance of trade regarding imports and exports. Explain the stock market versus the real estate
market.>
Local Area Demographics & Data Research
< 2 paragraphs. Each paragraph needs 5 sentences. Each paragraph must include 1
citation in APA format. In the first paragraph, answer the following prompts in complete
sentences based on pages 54-55 of the textbook and demographic data sources. Do NOT use
numbering or bullet points and do NOT include these questions/prompts in your responses:
REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
4
Identify a city you will research for the purposes of this report. It should be in or near the area in
which you live. Spell out the entire city name and state. Report on the following demographics
for this city. Be sure to list the year of the data, and spell out everything fully. Population;
Average Income (household and per capita); Family size and makeup; Major employers /
employment types; and Average home value. In the paragraph, cite your sources using APA
format. Insert the reference in APA format at the end of both paragraphs. In your term paper,
this will be inserted on the References page.>
Trends in the Real Estate Market
< 2 paragraphs. Each paragraph needs 5 sentences. Each paragraph must include 1
citation in APA format (page number from the textbook and/or data source). Select and respond
REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
5
to FIVE (5) of the prompts in complete sentences based on Chapters 9, 10, 11, and/or 12 of the
textbook. Do NOT use numbering or bullet points and do NOT include these questions/prompts
in your responses.>
Chart and Graph
< INSERT charts / graphs here (based on the above paragraph). Label each chart / graph
and be sure to cite the sources under each chart/graph. The illustrations need to be from a
scholarly or credible source. >
Forecast of the Real Estate Market
< 2 paragraphs. Each paragraph needs 5 sentences. Each paragraph must include 1
citation in APA format. In the first paragraph, select and answer only FIVE (5) of the following
questions in complete sentences based on Chapters 13 and 14 of the textbook. Do NOT use
numbering or bullet points and do NOT include these questions/prompts in your responses.>
REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
6
Strategies & Solutions for Local Area
< 2 paragraphs. Each paragraph needs 5 sentences. Each paragraph must include 1
citation in APA format. In the first paragraph, respond to the prompts in complete sentences
based on the textbook chapters 1, 5, 6, and 15. Do NOT use numbering or bullet points and do
NOT include these questions/prompts in your responses: What is the process of financial
forecasting (page 423)? How are real estate cycles forecasted (pages 21 - 26)? Why is a breakeven analysis important in real estate development (pages 425 - 427)? In looking ahead, what
factors will continue to influence housing supply and demand (pages 435 - 438)? Explain why
fair housing regulations are important to the future of real estate (pages 444 - 448).>
REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECAST
8
References
Huber, W., Messick, L. P., & Pivar, W. (2016). Real Estate Economics (6th ed.). Educational
Textbook Company. Retrieved from https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1626843260
APA NOTES: The heading References must start at the top of the page and it should be
centered. All references must be in hanging indent format. The first line needs to be left aligned
and the second / third lines need to be indented ½ inch (in other words, the hanging indent is the
opposite of the body paragraphs). References must be in alphabetical order. All lines must be
double-spaced. DELETE THESE NOTES.
Bre139
Master Muhammad
4-18-24
Textbook: Huber, et al., 2016.
Huber, et al.
ACTIVITY: Economic Principles and Theories (Term Paper Part 1)
First paragraph
Apart from finding employment, studying real estate economics helps understand how
different factors affect the landscape and helps make better real estate investment decisions. The
law of supply and demand state that with low supply and high demand, the price is likelier to
increase, but with high supply and low demand, the prices are likelier to decrease (6-7) so they
influence real estate by determining price equilibrium based on the number of properties
available and the demand for those properties. Inflation is an ongoing and sustained increase in
prices in an economy, while deflation is a general, ongoing fall in prices, and stagflation involves
the combination of slow economic growth, high prices, and high unemployment. Another
economic principle is filtering down applied to housing, whereas new high-quality housing
become available, individuals will move up to these new units and leave the slightly used,
older homes available at affordable prices for lower-income groups (17). The four real estate
cycles are recovery, expansion, hyper-supply, and recession, which are essential for forecasting
future market trends, vital for investors.
Second Paragraph
One of the most influential economists is John Maynard Keynes, who rejected the
classical view of markets as self-correcting, but instead advocated that governments intervention
through fiscal policy would help decrease unemployment and stabilize the economy (38).
Capitalism and socialism have similarities like their shared focus on the ownership and
allocation of productive assets, but they affect real estate due to their differences like capitalism
promotes private ownership and limited government involvement, while socialism advocates for
collective ownership and state regulation of property and housing (41-43). Imperfect competition
is an environment where the market has various characteristics, like companies trading different
services and products and fighting for individual market share, a practice seen in real estate
because there are many characteristics distinguishing properties from one another (46). The
concept of “highest and best use” relates to real estate as it is the highest possible value of
property and its highest use to attain or achieve highest return and value (Bravi & Rossi 481).
Price and value differ because price is the amount a buyer paid for a property, while value is the
worth of future benefits derived from the property.
Work cited
Huber, W., Messick, L. P., & Piva, W. (2016). Real Estate Economics (6th ed.). Covina, CA:
Educational Textbook Company.
Bravi, Marina, and Rossi, Stefano “Real estate development, highest and best use and real
options.” Aestimum (2012): 479-498.
1
Name:
Date:
Class:
Textbook: Real Estate Economics (6th ed.) by Wayne Huber et al. (2016)
FINANCING & MONEY MARKETS
One of the money principles is the influence of the federal funds rate on the prime rate (p.
90). This principle highlights how changes in the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve
impact the interest rate that banks charge their most credit-worthy borrowers for short-term loans.
The federal funds rate remains flexible, and this fact directly impacts the prime rate and borrowing
cost for both individual clients and companies. On page 90, the author illustrates the mission of
the Federal Reserve, the functioning body whose operations are carried out with the objective of
influencing interest rates and monetary policy of the United States. “The federal funds rate, by
affecting the PRIME RATE (p. 90), points at the central Fed position which directs market
regulations and economic environment.” Comparing monetary and fiscal policies, as addressed on
page 94, both aim to influence economic conditions. Monetary policy focuses on managing the
money supply and interest rates, while fiscal policy involves government decisions on taxation
and spending. Despite their differences, both policies aim to achieve economic stability and
growth. Discussing the balance of trade, highlighted on page 96, implies a difference between
exporting and importing that can then influence currency value and companies’ prices in the
domestic market. The last rule that lies in comparing the stock market with the real estate market
report is that both of the services provide an investment medium, but they have different kinds of
asset classes and risk profiles. Funding rates, being the means to stem real estate demand and
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prices, give evidence of the interrelationships that go on between the financial markets and the
economy.
Federal Housing Administration (FHA) is a government agency established to facilitate
access to homeownership by providing mortgage insurance for loans made by approved lenders,
particularly for borrowers with lower credit scores or smaller down payments (p. 108). Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac are government agencies whose main business activities are in the secondary
mortgage market when they purchase the outstanding mortgages on behalf of the lenders as well
as the possible guarantee of the volatile loans (p. 104).In the secondary mortgage market,
mortgages are bought and sold as securities, allowing lenders to replenish their funds and continue
issuing new loans (p. 104). The borrowers who want to take out mortgages with lenders have to
repay them for providing funds for a certain period. The lenders send bills with an interest payment,
which is usually a percentage of the loan amount and the points, representing the points that the
borrower pays upfront at the closing to lower the rate of interest. Lenders deal with quite a few
risks while transferring assets through real estate, such as interest rate fluctuations, inflation, and
property value fluctuations, and all these factors lead to the default of loan repayment and
underperformance of lenders.
3
Reference:
Huber, W., Messick, L. P., & Piva, W. (2016). Real Estate Economics (6th ed.). Covina, CA:
Educational Textbook Company.
1
Bre139 Real Estate Economics
4-29-24
Master Muhammad
Textbook: Huber, et al., 2016
Victorville, California in San Bernardino County has a current population of
approximately 139,810 as recorded in the year 2024 (World Population Review, 2024). With
regard to its median age, the city is at 31. 8 years having a racial make up that consist of Whites
(42. 07%), Two or more races (18. 9%), and Black or African Americans (17. 17%) among other
ethnicities (U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024). The average family earns $87,081 per year;
however about one out every nineteen families live below federally defined poverty level(19.
15%); and individual residents earn an estimated $23,0231 on average (World Population
Review, 2024). The majority of homes in Victorville are occupied by married couples which
represent about 71. 4% with an average household size of 3. 54 people(World Population
Review, 2024). The top employers in the local area include fields such as education, local
government, health care, manufacturing, retail and small businesses (Livability, 2024). The
median price of listed houses in Victorville, CA stood at $450,000 with a yearly growth rate
estimated as 5. 9% (NAR Housing Statistics, 2024)..
Homeownership in the High Desert area of Victorville, California, in San Bernardino
County is posing a challenge for residents. The increasing costs of buying property have created
a situation where most people who wish to own homes cant afford one. Homeownership has
turned into an obsession because individuals now believe that their houses are only economic
2
commodities (CBC, 2022).The Victor Valley is home to several communities, but the one in
which most people live is Victorville, with a population of over one hundred twenty two
thousand. In Victorville, the median value for houses is around $270,000. For rental rates,
specifically at High Desert Villas in Victorville, you can get yourself a one-bedroom unit from
$1,389 upwards monthly. The affordability index is medium. Many families and individuals
experience the impact of this issue since they cannot easily get cheap housing. The problem
spills over to surrounding areas whereby neighbors undergo financial stress due to reduced
chances for mortgage uptake and/or affordable loans (p. 278). The rising real estate sector has
compounded the issue on affordability especially for potential buyers; this has led to a sellers
market (CBC, 2022). The lack of affordability in home ownership has had profound effects on
property values and the local real estate market in Victorville. As housing costs continue to
outpace earnings in Canada, owning a home has become increasingly unattainable for many
families (CBC News, 2022). The demand for investment properties has also played a part in
raising prices thus reducing options available to those intending to buy houses for their very first
time. According to the Bank of Canada report cited in the CBC article, investors were
responsible for 30% of home purchases in early 2023, while first-time homebuyers accounted for
only 43% (CBC News, 2022). This shift in buyer demographics has led to a reduction in
available housing supply for first-time buyers and increased competition among investors.
Consequently, neighborhoods witness unequal distribution of homeowners as well as
overstretched resources occasioned by high population under rental or extended family
accommodation situations (Huber et al. 2016). These trends arise from and influence highly
expensive property valuations within which most potential clients cannot reach (CBC News,
2022).
3
References
CBC News. (2022). The dirty secret of the housing crisis? Homeowners like high prices.
Retrieved from https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-prices-affordability-realestate-1.7170775
Huber, W., Messick, L. P., & Piva, W. (2016). Real Estate Economics (6th ed.). Covina, CA:
Educational Textbook Company.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov
U.S. Census Bureau. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.census.gov
NAR Housing Statistics. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.nar.realtor/research-andstatistics/housing-statistics
Livability. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://livability.com/ca/victorville/education-careersopportunity/victor-valley-ca-top-employers/
World Population Review. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://worldpopulationreview.com/uscities/victorville-ca-population
1
Bre 139 Real Estate Economics
Master Muhammad
5-7-24
Textbook: Huber, et al., 2016
This paragraph elaborates on real estate which is also one of the five areas and how it affects
the economy, how it affects the consumer’s demand. The interest rates are a type of economic
environment and always have an impact on the housing demand due to various factors being
negatively affected by the mortgage, both the buyers and sellers (Huber et al., 2016, p. 263).
A modern niche in the housing market is student housing, which fulfils college students`
needs through the supply of convenient locations and amenities (Huber et al., 2016, pp. 270271). The affordability index helps to understand the situation with the acquisition of housing
in a given region by determining how much one can afford to spend on this housing. This is
an indication of a competitive market in which many potential buyers are scrambled over a
few bankable properties. Another trend is the emergence of not-ordinary living options. To
illustrate, a small home is a more budget-friendly and eco-friendly living option which uses a
small space rather than a traditional lifestyle comparably.
Analysis of Real Estate Trends
The two graphs that are highlighted in my independent research show the current values of
the real estate field. The first chart is titled “U.S. Mortgage Rates by Year from Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is displayed in a line graph which indicates an upward
trend in mortgage rates beginning in 2024. The trend is a sharp increase. It goes well with the
fact that the downward trend of affordability in the housing market as higher mortgage
interest rates make the monthly housing mortgage costs go higher (Federal Reserve
Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed, 2024). The second graph is titled “Inventory of
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Unsold Existing Homes” figure from the NAR, and it shows a levelled-up trend in housing
inventory throughout 2021 and 2024 (Nar). This fact out that the picture of the market seems
to be tilted in the favor of the buyers compared to how the scene was before that seller’s
market a few years ago. The two graphs indicate a cooling down in the housing market,
however upward-moving mortgage rates remain a risk to buyer affordability, but inventory
growth can be an advantage in lessening buyer competition in this market.
3
References
(2024). Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
(2024). notitle. https://www.nar.realtor/
Huber, W., Messick, L. P., & Piva, W. (2016). Real Estate Economics (6th ed.). Covina, CA:
Educational Textbook Company
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