Question 1
.
?States of nature??

.

.
a.

.
can describe uncontrollable
natural events such as floods or freezing temperatures.?

.

.
b.

.
can be selected by the
decision maker.?

.

.
c.

.
cannot be enumerated by the
decision maker?

.

.
d.

.
All of the alternatives are
true.?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 2
.
?A payoff??

.

.
a.

.
exists
for each pair of decision alternatives and states of nature.?

.

.
b.

.
exists
for each state of nature.?

.

.
c.

.
is
always measured in cost.?

.

.
d.

.
is
always measured in profit.?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 3
.
?Making a good decision??

.

.
a.

.
requires
probabilities for all states of nature.?

.

.
b.

.
implies
that a desirable outcome will occur.?

.

.
c.

.
All of
the alternatives are true.?

.

.
d.

.
requires
a clear understanding of decision alternatives, states of nature, and
payoffs.?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 4
.
?A decision tree??

.

.
a.

.
arranges
decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronological
order.?

.

.
b.

.
alternates
the decision alternatives and states of nature.?

.

.
c.

.
presents
all states of nature first and follows them with all decision alternatives.?

.

.
d.

.
presents
all decision alternatives first and follows them with all states of nature.?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 5
.
?Which of the methods for decision making without probabilities best
protects the decision maker from undesirable results???

.

.
a.

.
the
optimistic approach?

.

.
b.

.
minimax
regret?

.

.
c.

.
minimum regret?

.

.
d.

.
?
.
the
conservative approach? ?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 6
.
?Decision tree probabilities refer to??

.

.
a.

.
the
probability of the decision being made?

.

.
b.

.
the
probability of finding the optimal strategy?

.

.
c.

.
the
probability of an uncertain event occurring?

.

.
d.

.
the
probability of overlooked choices?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 7
.
?Seasonal components??

.

.
a.

.
cannot
be predicted?

.

.
b.

.
reflect
a shift in the series over time?

.

.
c.

.
are
regular repeated patterns?

.

.
d.

.
are
long runs of observations above or below the trend line?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 8
.
?The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth??

.

.
a.

.
the
irregular component?

.

.
b.

.
long
range forecasts?

.

.
c.

.
wide
seasonal variations?

.

.
d.

.
significant
trend effects?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 9
.
?Forecast errors??

.

.
a.

.
are the
difference in successive vlues of a time series?

.

.
b.

.
are the
differences between actual and forecast values?

.

.
c.

.
should
be summed to judge the goodness of a forecasting model?

.

.
d.

.
should
all be non-negative?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 10
.
?To select the value for alpha for exponential smoothing??

.

.
a.

.
All of
the alternatives are true?

.

.
b.

.
use any
value between 0 and 1?

.

.
c.

.
use a
small alpha when the series varies substantially?

.

.
d.

.
use a
large alpha when the series has little random variability?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 11
.
?The multiplicative model??

.

.
a.

.
removes
trend before isolating the seasonal components?

.

.
b.

.
uses
centered moving averages to smooth the trend fluctuations?

.

.
c.

.
provides
a unique seasonal index for each observation of the time series?

.

.
d.

.
deseasonalizes
a time series by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index?

.
???
3 points
QUESTION 12
.
?Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the
most recent time series value???

.

.
a.

.
moving
average using the most recent 4 periods?

.

.
b.

.
moving
average using the most recent 3 periods?

.

.
c.

.
exponential
smoothing with alpha = .3?

.

.
d.

.
Exponential
smoothing with alpha = .2?

.
???
Question 1.
?States of nature??.
.
a..
can describe uncontrollable
natural events such as floods or freezing temperatures.?.
.
b..
can be selected by the
decision maker.?.
.
c..
cannot be enumerated by the
decision maker?.
.
d..
All of the alternatives are
true.?.
???3 points QUESTION 2.
?A payoff??.
.
a..
exists
for each pair of decision alternatives and states of nature.?.
.
b..
exists
for each state of nature.?.
.
c..
is
always measured in cost.?.
.
d..
is
always measured in profit.?.
???3 points QUESTION 3.
?Making a good decision??.
.
a..
requires
probabilities for all states of nature.?.
.
b..
implies
that a desirable outcome will occur.?.
.
c..
All of
the alternatives are true.?.
.
d..
requires
a clear understanding of decision alternatives, states of nature, and
payoffs.?.
???3 points QUESTION 4.
?A decision tree??.
.
a..
arranges
decision alternatives and states of nature in their natural chronological
order.?.
.
b..
alternates
the decision alternatives and states of nature.?.
.
c..
presents
all states of nature first and follows them with all decision alternatives.?.
.
d..
presents
all decision alternatives first and follows them with all states of nature.?.
???3 points QUESTION 5.
?Which of the methods for decision making without probabilities best
protects the decision maker from undesirable results???.
.
a..
the
optimistic approach?.
.
b..
minimax
regret?.
.
c..
minimum regret?.
.
d..
?.
the
conservative approach? ?.
???3 points QUESTION 6.
?Decision tree probabilities refer to??.
.
a..
the
probability of the decision being made?.
.
b..
the
probability of finding the optimal strategy?.
.
c..
the
probability of an uncertain event occurring?.
.
d..
the
probability of overlooked choices?.
???3 points QUESTION 7.
?Seasonal components??.
.
a..
cannot
be predicted?.
.
b..
reflect
a shift in the series over time?.
.
c..
are
regular repeated patterns?.
.
d..
are
long runs of observations above or below the trend line?.
???3 points QUESTION 8.
?The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth??.
.
a..
the
irregular component?.
.
b..
long
range forecasts?.
.
c..
wide
seasonal variations?.
.
d..
significant
trend effects?.
???3 points QUESTION 9.
?Forecast errors??.
.
a..
are the
difference in successive vlues of a time series?.
.
b..
are the
differences between actual and forecast values?.
.
c..
should
be summed to judge the goodness of a forecasting model?.
.
d..
should
all be non-negative?.
???3 points QUESTION 10.
?To select the value for alpha for exponential smoothing??.
.
a..
All of
the alternatives are true?.
.
b..
use any
value between 0 and 1?.
.
c..
use a
small alpha when the series varies substantially?.
.
d..
use a
large alpha when the series has little random variability?.
???3 points QUESTION 11.
?The multiplicative model??.
.
a..
removes
trend before isolating the seasonal components?.
.
b..
uses
centered moving averages to smooth the trend fluctuations?.
.
c..
provides
a unique seasonal index for each observation of the time series?.
.
d..
deseasonalizes
a time series by dividing the values by the appropriate seasonal index?.
???3 points QUESTION 12.
?Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the
most recent time series value???.
.
a..
moving
average using the most recent 4 periods?.
.
b..
moving
average using the most recent 3 periods?.
.
c..
exponential
smoothing with alpha = .3?.
.
d..
Exponential
smoothing with alpha = .2?.
???