Effects of temperature and species cohabitation on the infection rates and mutability of low pathogenicity avian influenza: terns and herring gullsBackground:There are many components that can result in the endangerment of various animal species. Disease is just one factor that contributes to population decline. However, when coupled with other population reducers, losses can be devastating. This is especially true of diseases that are easily transmittable from species to species. In these situations, several species are impacted versus just one species population. Avian influenza is a virus that occurs naturally among wild water birds globally, and has the opportunity to be transmitted to domestic poultry, other birds, and mammal speciesincluding humans (CDC 2017). Typically, when low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) is transmitted from species to species, symptoms are mild. However, mutations can occur and ultimately result in high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). When this happens, it can be detrimental to bird species populations (Harder and Werne 2006). As a result, preventing an increase in transmission rates is pivotal when managing for this disease.Another driving force that is threatening animal populations is climate change. Climate change has the potential to alter and shift around natural ecosystem processes. Variability in climate in particular has been shown to alter distribution, composition, and migration patterns in birds (Gilbert et al. 2008). Little is known about the impact climate change will have on avian influenza in particular. However, water temperature, pH, salinity, and co-existing biota impact the viruss vitality and survival (Stoner-Duncan et al. 2018). By changing these variables, there is the potential for the virus to become even more of a threat than it is today. This could lead to more devastating population losses and even cause a human pandemic. Therefore, it is crucial to learn about climate changes impacts on avian influenza.Hypothesis:Climate change influences migration patterns and tends to lengthen the breeding season for migratory carriers (needs citation here), increasing transmission of both LPAI and HPAI (needs citation). We propose that rates of transmission of LPAI in a flock of terns (Sterna hirundo) will increase with length of mating season, and that the ability of the virus to mutate increases with exposure to different species of birdsin this study, the herring gull (Larus smithsonianus)during the mating season. This data set is the beginning of many analyses of mutations that occur between specific species. Upon the completion of the project, we hope to construct a useful forecast for avian influenza in North America, and adjust variables accordingly to minimize disease incidence. This can be applied in conjunction with the other environmental and anthropogenic variables that influence disease incidence in wild bird populations in order to increase forecast accuracy. We attempt here to include the known influence of rising temperature on the length of the mating season for asymptomatic LPAI carriers.Methods:StructureBird species used in this study were determined by the proximity that the two species have to one another during the times that they mate, and their abilities to carry LPAI. Both terns and herring gulls spend the warmer months of the year near the Great Lakes region of North America. Ten birds composed a flock. Three flocks of terns were kept separately from one another from mid-March through mid-July, to mimic the time they spend in the northern segment of their habitat. Each flock had continual access to a communal pool of water supplied with stock minnows throughout the study, and each bird was swabbed once a week to test for the presence of LPAI. Separately, three flocks of herring gulls paired each with a flock of terns were also kept. While herring gulls have been known to migrate, it is rare that breeding gulls do; rather, they remain in the northern regions of the Americas. A single flock of herring gulls and a single flock of terns shared a pool stocked with yellow perch, minnows, and bluegills. This totals three separated flocks of terns, and three intraspecies flocks. Day and night temperatures were set to mimic the changing of weather in early spring to midsummer in the Great Lakes area in three scenarios: the current environmental temperatures, a prediction of those temperatures ten years from now, and those twenty years from now. In both sets of flocks, there was a group with day and night temperatures set to mimic those currently experienced during the months of March-July (50/35 F, 10/1.6 C85/60 F, 30/15.5 C). This data was taken from AccuWeather public day/night temperature records. The second groupings received temperatures 2 degrees C higher, and the third groupings received temperatures 6 degrees C higher than the first, on average over all temperature fluctuations. Assuming near or total infection of flocks, research with these species connected to this particular study will be discontinued and energy will be focused on new sets of species of LPAI carriers. Assuming less than half, on average, infection of flocks, research with the same groups of birds will be continued the next year.Virological investigationSwabs from each bird, taken once a week during the breeding season, were inoculated into canine kidney cells to isolate influenza viruses. The virus isolates were then amplified using reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCR) and identified using haemagglutination inhibition tests using specific reference sera, as outlined in (Robertson S.I, et al 2006). Methods for genomic and phylogenetic analysis have been described previously (Chen et al. 2005).Analysis of dataData from swabs identified a) presence of LPAI and b) specific hemagglutinins denoting strain of virus. Disease incidence was plotted over time per tern flock and per intraspecies flock. Additionally, any viral mutation in newly infected birds was noted, and plotted over time. A line of best fit was applied to all data. From the average slopes of the data from the infection rates in all flocks comes an apparent infection rate. The average slope of rate of mutation in intraspecies flocks was also taken, and provides an apparent mutation rate. These data can be loosely applied to wild interactions, but will be more useful upon full completion of this study.A secondary goal of this study was to analyze the effects of rising temperature on the length of breeding season for each species. The beginning and end of mating was noted for each flock, and will be presented alongside disease incidence data.Significance:This study will provide information on LPAI transmission rates on flocks of herring gulls and terns exposed to temperature cycling representing present, near future, and future conditions in mating habitat. These findings will reveal whether or not climate change will exemplify the spreading and effects of avian influenza. If there is an indication that LPAI transmission rates increase with rising temperatures, this information can be related to other avian species that may be threatened. Along with this, a forecast of avian influenza patterns in North America may be constructed with climate change in mind. By understanding the effects of rising temperatures, further research may be implemented to determine the best management strategies for mitigating the effects of avian influenza on various avian species populations. This is especially true for threatened species or species of special concern. Utilizing this research, recovery plans may be able to curb the effects of wildlife disease on fragile populations and therefore reduce the ill effects climate change may present to threatened species.Additionally, this study corresponds with the One Health Model, in which it is recognized that the health of wildlife is connected to the health of humans and the environment (CDC 2018). Managing the spread of wildlife disease directly impacts humans and the surrounding environment. By determining the incidence of disease in one specific species, these results aid in protecting the health of others, as well as encouraging future studies focusing on other populations. Since avian influenza is a disease that can be transmitted from birds to humans and other animals, it becomes critical to develop management techniques to prevent the spread of transmission. The data collected from this study will help in the development of new techniques, as well as predicting the spread of disease in the upcoming future.Citations:Alexa Fritzsche McKay, Bethany J. Hoye; Are Migratory Animals Superspreaders of Infection?, Integrative and Comparative Biology, Volume 56, Issue 2, 1 August 2016, Pages 260267, https://doi-org.ezproxy.library.wisc.edu/10.1093/icb/icw054CDC. (2017). Influenza Type A Viruses Centers for Disease Control and Prevention https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/influenza-a-virus-subtypes.htmCDC. (2018). One Health Basics Centers for Disease Control and Preventionhttps://www.cdc.gov/onehealth/basics/index.htmlChan, K. H., et al. Evaluation of the Directigen FluA+B Test for Rapid Diagnosis of Influenza Virus Type A and B Infections. 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(2018). Avian influenza virus ecology and evolution through a climatic lens. Environment International, 119, 241-249.Get Help With Your EssayIf you need assistance with writing your essay, our professional essay writing service is here to help!Find out more
