A bureau uses a lab method to match the lead in a bullet found at a crime scene with unexpected lead cartridges found in the possession of a suspect. The value of this evidence depends on the chance of a false positive-the probability that the bureau finds a match, given that the lead at the crime scene and the lead in the possession of the suspect are actually from 2 different “melts” or sources. To estimate the false positive rate, the bureau collected 1,882 bullets that the agency was confident all came from different melts. Then using the established criteria the bureau examined every possible pair of bullets and found 613 matches. Use this information to compute the chance of a false positive.
___% please round to 4 decimal places
